Ali’s blog

Mostly quant stuff with occasional digressions

Contours of descent

Posted by alifinmath on February 24, 2009

Okay, the title of the post is ever-so-slightly misleading. It’s more about the depression we’re in. The following is excerpted from the Glenn Beck program on Fox:

BECK: OK. What is life like — under that scenario — what is life like in 2014 for America?

CELENTE: New York City looks like Mexico City. If you have money or they think you’re going to have money, you’re going to be a target for a kidnapping. We’re going to see major cities look like Calcutta. There is going to be the homeless, panhandlers, hookers.

CELENTE: And the other thing, even these — even these gated communities won’t be safe, because you’re going to see criminality — you’re going to see gangs like you’ve never seen before. Listen, when people have nothing left to lose, and they’ve lost everything, they lose it. And now, you have a society — we’re a dissenting society. I mean, you look at high school graduation rates — you have under 50 percent in major cities.

CELENTE: You have people that are ignorant, functionally illiterate, and whacked out on drugs, Hillbilly era, well, you name it, meth, go down the line, and they have nothing to lose.

You know, I’m a practitioner, a close combat practitioner, Attackproof.com is my instructing — teachers, John Perkins, and he’s a self defense expert. He’s a close combat. Number one, anybody that wants to look him up, he’s there.

You know what he teaches us? He teaches us to prepare for the worst — survival. And then you back off from that. So, let’s look at what you are doing. You are doing the perfect thing. You are building the worst-case scenario.

From that, we can back off, but people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.

CELENTE: The cities are going to look like Dodge City. They’re going to be uncontrollable. You’re going to have gangs in control, motorcycle marauders. You’re not going to have enough police or federalis, just like Mexico, to control the situation.

If you ever want to get depressed, listen to Gerard Celente. Some of his interviews have been posted on YouTube.

Here is more analysis from Dmitry Orlov, comparing the imminent US collapse to the Soviet collapse. Keep in mind it came out over two years ago — yet remains intensely topical.

About ten years ago one could walk down Nicollet Avenue in downtown Minneapolis without encountering any panhandlers. Today there are two or three on every block and it’s like running the gauntlet. There is even a gentleman — probably a liberal arts graduate — outside the IDS building who will compose a poem on the spot for the modest consideration of fifty cents or a dollar. There are Vietnam and Iraq 1 veterans. There are panhandlers on all the downtown I35 ramps. There have been panhandlers sitting outside on Nicollet even in temperatures of 10F (~ -12C): these are temperatures where I feel cold even walking, let alone sitting immobile on the ground.

My conviction is that desperation is the mother of crime. When I left Karachi in 1986, the guards outside banks used to carry rusty old muskets that had obviously never been used. But already armed crime was beginning to rise precipitously — a function of reduced opportunities, particularly for the urban young. When I returned in 1994, all the bank and hotel guards were carrying AK47s. On the street of the house where I was living, every single house had been broken into by armed robbers with AK47s. An AK47 could be rented by the hour. So one wonders whether US cities will come anywhere close to this.

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